Why Democrats Can’t Afford to Ignore Texas
Hi there,
Redistricting has been in the political news a lot lately, with Texas having gerrymandered its maps to give a +5 advantage for the GOP and Gavin Newsom responding with a California ballot proposition.
But what about reapportionment, the once a decade doling out of Congressional seats and electoral votes after the census?
New population estimates from the Census Bureau point to significant changes in the composition of the House and the Electoral College after the 2030 census – moving electoral college votes almost entirely from blue states to red states.
Using the new data, if trends of the last two years continue, the South will gain nine seats in the reapportionment of congressional districts after the next census — the largest single-decade gain for the region in history.
Florida and Texas could see especially large increases of four seats each, with Texas within striking distance of adding a fifth seat. North Carolina would also see its congressional delegation increase by a seat.
These potential gains are driven overwhelmingly by communities of color. Census data released over the summer shows that between 2022 and 2023, more than 84 percent of population growth in the South came from increases in the region’s Black, Latino, and Asian American/Pacific Islander populations, with more than half of overall growth coming from Latinos. The majority of this growth, moreover, was in just four states: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
The losers? California (-3), New York (-2), Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
Which brings us to this point – why Texas matters.
Thinking about these states that are gaining votes, only North Carolina (14, and potentially 15 after reapportionment) and Texas (40, and potentially 44 if not 45) are states that Democrats have a remotely close chance of winning statewide. Florida, a battleground through 2012, seems to be getting more conservative in statewide elections every cycle and new registrations trend towards the GOP.
Biden lost North Carolina by 1.3% in 2020 and has elected Democratic governors for all but four of the last 32 years. While only Obama 08 won their share of electoral votes, the state has been either a swing state or a bubble swing state for the last five cycles.
Texas is a whole different beast entirely. With the aberration of 2024, the state has been trending Democratic and margins have been narrowing. Biden lost the state by a 52-46 margin but performed significantly better than Obama ’12 57-41 or Kerry’s 61-38. However, the prize is that much greater – winning statewide in Texas would almost certainly lead to winning the White House, as Texas currently has more electoral votes than Michigan and Pennsylvania combined, and by 2032, will have more than MI, PA and Wisconsin combined.
Polling from the University of Texas shows the state moving toward the Democrats heading into the 2026 elections.
Economic concerns have dragged Trump’s approval rating to being net negative while Governor Abbott, who has been viewed positively since August 2022, is now in the net negative category. Attorney General Ken Paxton, who consistently lags Abbott in polling by about 10 points, is deeply negative. What’s important about Paxton, one of the most extreme members of GOP politics? He’s challenging incumbent Senator Cornyn from the right, and is favored to win the primary.
This gives Democrats two critical races to take on – a potential Senate flip, where a number of strong Democratic candidates are competing for the party nomination, and the Governor’s race, where Abbott is seeking his fourth term. While the political chattering classes have been focused on the Senate race, having the Governorship would stop further redistricting action and give the Democrats a tool to negotiate more fair maps (in Texas, the Governor can veto redistricting maps, and veto overrides while possible are historically very difficult).
Enter rancher Bobby Cole — the kind of candidate who can beat Abbott. We made his awesome launch video (click here to watch) and are proud to be working with State Rep. Vikki Goodwin for Lt. Governor. Check her out at VikkiGoodwin.com
One big criticism that we at CN4 have of Democrats is that we as a party have sat back and watched the map shrink, year after year, and have done little to change it by investing in quality candidates. Consider in 2010, we had:
- Two Democratic Senators in Arkansas
- A Democratic Senator in Missouri
- Two Democratic Senators in Montana
- A Democratic Senator in Louisiana
- Two Democratic Senators in North Dakota
- A Democratic Senator in South Dakota
- A Democratic Senator in Iowa
- A Democratic Senator in Ohio
- A Democratic Senator in Indiana
- A Democratic Senator in North Carolina
- A Democratic Senator from Alaska
- A Democratic Senator from Florida
None of the positions above are controlled by the Democratic Party today. We’ve made gains in Arizona and Georgia, but those are largely it. As our map has shrunk, so too has our chances of gaining and keeping power nationally, having any say in redistricting, or making people’s lives better who live in these states.
Getting power means expanding the map, and nowhere is investment more important than Texas.
Want to nerd out on maps? Give me a call at (206) 423-0120 or shoot me an email at dean@cn4partners.com.
– Dean