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Time To Turn Vibes Into Voters

Hi Friends!

With August slipping away, we’re days away from Labor Day, the unofficial start to GOTV. It’s about to get weird and wacky, but will it be wonderful?

I have been taking a look at the ever-growing poll pile across the country and seeing a trend emerge – Republicans are down bad. So many of these races which seemed impossible are moving our way because, for once in my life, Republicans are the ones who may stay home on Election Day.

Are the vibes really this good? Will we crash back to reality in three weeks as is our tradition? We can’t predict the future, but we do have pollsters. So I called my very smart friends Joshua Ulibarri and Meryl O’Bryan of Lake Research’s TeamU and asked them to help me figure out what’s going on here:

 

What are you seeing regarding voter enthusiasm across the country, and what do you think is causing it? 

Ansley – thank you so much for reaching out to us. I always love to read the CN4 email from you and Michael because it doesn’t just brag about the smart things your team is doing but also the important things you are learning.

I love this as a first question – enthusiasm and motivation. I have to tell you, I ask for motivation more than enthusiasm because very few voters are ENTHUSIASTIC about voting right now. They are motivated to turn out and hold folks (especially Republicans) accountable for not getting things done, but they are not particularly enthusiastic about it. That seems understandable in this environment, so no judgement on less enthusiasm.

That said, measuring motivations also seems pretty important as it can both reveal and obscure some things. What we have found so far is that Democrats and Democrat-aligned voters are more motivated to vote compared to Republicans. From a “can we measure it” standpoint, it doesn’t seem particularly close and is generally outside the margin of error.

That is the good news – if you take a look at Dems vs Republicans, Dems are more motivated. We also tend to look at what share of a candidate’s vote registers as a “10” on the motivation scale; and in that case our candidates’ bases of support include more “motivated” voters than the opposition.

BUT, of course, there is a caution. We also ask if Republicans identify or are favorable toward MAGA, and if you isolate just those Republicans who are “pro-MAGA”, well, they are actually AS motivated and sometimes more motivated than “all Democrats.” That worries me because we generally think without Trump on the ballot we have advantages, but comparing base to base, that may not be as true as we want it to be.

 

When was the last time you noticed these trends?

Now it feels like you are trying to age us, maybe! (Note from Ansley: I would never!) But for sure in lots of ways it feels like 2017, 2018, and 2019 – the first Trump administration. That three-election, two-year run was instrumental in adding some checks and balances.

But again, let me just give you two other years to think about. In 2022, we were preparing for a horrible election for Democrats, and then the Supreme Court came in and reversed Roe, which changed the election-year focus. Then, Biden gave his MAGA speech, which also refocused some things.

So, will the planned GOP summer convention change the narrative, and does Trump have something planned or unplanned that will impact the flow? The other election to think about is 2002 – I know, so so so long ago. That should have been a tough year for the GOP, but the build-up to the second Iraq War mitigated some of that energy. Things look good, but we have a lot of work to do.

 

Where do you see the trendlines moving as we head into November 3? 

It is difficult to pull a bad survey out of the field – every flip-able race is generally where you want it to be, and the watchable races in redder districts are within high-single digits. Whether that pertains to methodological issues or whether it supports the general vibes, we will find out in November.

I think things will tighten, as they usually do. These 10-point generic ballot advantages for Democrats feel inflated. We need these statewide candidates to perform to flip some of these underneath Congressionals, and the same is true for all the state legislative races we think we can flip.

There is a ton of opportunity down ballot, but we have to get voters to complete their ballots, and we need the races up top to live up to the billing.

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So to sum up, vibes are vibing, but we’re not in calm waters. As you’re talking to your clients, and if you have any opportunities to speak with the funders that make this industry go, here are three things to tell them:

  1. Vibes are not voters – we still have to convince people to go vote

  2. Vibes shift – these uncertain times make the weird and wacky very likely to show up this year

  3. Vibes compound – we can empower voters to shift motivation into enthusiasm, but that takes a well-funded campaign

Ballots are coming. Early voting is starting in weeks. We can do this, y’all.

— Ansley Mendelson