Ride the Wave
It’s been two weeks since the Texas primary, and the turnout surprised many. Infrequent voters showed up because they had something to say. The generic congressional ballot—historically our most reliable leading indicator of midterm outcomes—shows a consistent Democratic advantage:
Marist University (March 2-4): Democrat 53%; Republican 44%
Cygnal Political (March 3-4): Democrat 49%; Republican 45%
Hart Research & Public Opinion Strategies (Feb 27-March 3): Democrat 50%; Republican 44%
The generic ballot doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It is driven in large part by presidential approval, and President Trump’s numbers are…bad. Consider what the most recent surveys are showing:
YouGov (March 6-9): Approve 40%; Disapprove 55%
Quinnipiac University (March 6-8): Approve 37%; Disapprove 57%
Marist University (March 2-4): Approve 38%; Disapprove 57%
Favorable conditions can create opportunities and complacency. I’ve seen too many campaigns assume the national environment will do the heavy lifting for them. Wave elections help good campaigns and punish mediocre ones. Here’s how to position your campaign to maximize the moment:
Localize the Narrative
Don’t just ride the national wave—connect it to local concerns. Your messaging should translate that national sentiment into something voters can feel in their own lives: grocery prices, healthcare costs, gas prices in your district. Generic national talking points won’t cut it, even in a wave year.
Build Field Infrastructure Now
The campaigns that win wave elections are the ones with field operations already in place when momentum peaks. March is not too early to be recruiting precinct captains, identifying super-volunteers, and mapping your voter contact universe. In favorable environments, voter registration and early vote programs can dramatically expand your coalition, but only if you have the infrastructure to execute them.
Define Your Opponent Before They Define the Race
In a wave environment, Republican incumbents and candidates will try to distance themselves from unpopular national figures while maintaining their base support. Don’t let them have it both ways. The time to establish their connection to unpopular positions on healthcare, the economy, and immigration enforcement is now.
Run a Disciplined Economic Message
The polling is clear about what’s driving voter discontent: economics. Make cost of living, healthcare, and wages the spine of your campaign, and resist the temptation to let cultural flashpoints dominate the conversation, which is exactly what Republicans will try to force.
Pace Your Campaign for November
This is perhaps the most difficult discipline: building steadily toward November rather than expending all your resources on early victories. It is March. You have many months until Election Day. Pace your spending, volunteer energy, and candidate’s schedule accordingly. Use early momentum for fundraising, but reserve your biggest programming and spending for when voters are actually making decisions—September through November.
The 2026 midterms present Democratic campaigns with an enviable starting position. The generic ballot is consistently Democratic across independent aggregators. The president’s approval is at or near its second-term low heading into the spring.
These are the conditions that create wave elections. But waves don’t guarantee anything except opportunity. What separates winning campaigns from disappointing ones is the ability to convert favorable conditions into disciplined strategy, robust organization, and effective
Let’s help you take advantage of a wave year. Send me a note if you’d like to talk about how to find opportunities in all the chaos.