Reading the Crystal Ball with Latest Polling
Hi friends,
Recently, I had the chance to sit down with Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling, and talk about what they’re seeing in survey research. It’s a good read and worth your time!
—Dean Nielsen
Dean Nielsen, CN4: What are you seeing with your latest polling?
Tom Jensen, PPP: It’s shaping up as a very encouraging election cycle for Democrats. Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined a lot, and we’re seeing significant bounce-backs with Hispanic and young voters, suggesting Democratic underperformance with them in 2024 might have been a blip rather than a new reality. Democratic candidates are winning in most places that were close last time and have a path to victory in a lot of states and districts that voted for Trump by double digits.
DN: Many Democrats have found it frustrating that Republicans stick with Trump despite it all. Have there been any signs of a break with Trump from traditional GOP voters?
TJ: We are seeing Donald Trump start to decline some with his base. In our most recent national poll, only 80% of people who voted for him last time still approved of the job he was doing. I know it can be frustrating to Democrats to still see it that high, but often that figure has been in the 90s for him. And you have to remember the country was close to 50–50 in 2024, and just a few of Trump’s voters getting sick of him and going over to the Democrats would be enough for them to make major gains this year—and it’s a lot more than a few who are doing that.
DN: Affordability is a key buzzword for the 2026 elections, and we’re seeing many candidates launch with it. But campaigns often don’t end where they start. What’s your prediction for a sleeper issue this year?
TJ: Affordability certainly is the strongest issue for Democrats this year. There’s always this debate in politics: are we more worried about mobilizing the base or winning over voters in the middle? The answer should always be “both!” And the great thing about affordability is it accomplishes both of those tasks very well for Democrats. I don’t know if you can call it a sleeper issue at this point, but I do think ICE is going to be a big general issue this fall, where even a month ago I would have considered that a niche issue only of interest to highly informed voters. But their actions have been so over the line that everyone is paying attention now, and I think pushing back against ICE’s excesses could be especially helpful for Democrats in mobilizing young voters who might not always vote in midterms.
DN: In 2024, Trump and Republicans made inroads with Hispanic/Latino voters, API voters, and African American men. What are you seeing in your survey work so far with voters of color?
TJ: Democrats are definitely doing much better with voters of color than they did in 2024, and there’s a lot of real-world evidence of that. The recent huge Democratic win in a Texas State Senate special election and Mikie Sherrill’s unexpectedly big win for governor of New Jersey were both fueled in part by big swings back to Democrats with Hispanic voters. In our data, we’ve found Democrats have a very good chance of holding some of the South Texas districts that Republicans gerrymandered to have voted for Trump by 15 points or more this fall, because the strength with Hispanics that fueled those margins for the GOP isn’t there anymore. A lot of traditionally Democratic nonwhite voters who gave the Republicans a chance in 2024 have quickly decided they didn’t deserve that chance.
DN: Working-class whites, particularly union members, have been part of the Democratic coalition for years but have increasingly drifted to the Republicans. Some of the states Democrats must be competitive in—for example, Ohio and Wisconsin—have large numbers of these voters. How’s the Democratic brand holding up here?
TJ: The state where we’ve seen the biggest drop in Donald Trump’s standing relative to how he did in 2024 over the last year is Iowa, and that speaks to the extent to which working-class whites have quickly soured on Trump 2.0. Iowa Democrats scored several remarkable special election wins this year, and we see them positioned to flip two U.S. House seats next year. They have a great shot at winning the governor’s race, and the Senate race should be competitive too. And that story we see in Iowa is something we see across the Midwest. We have Democrats ahead for Congress in working-class districts that voted for Trump by more than five points in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This may be history repeating itself in reverse—Barack Obama did well with these voters to win his second term, and they immediately started their turn away from the Democrats the next midterm. Now Donald Trump did well with these voters to win his second term, and it sure looks like they immediately started their turn away from the Republicans in the next midterm cycle.
DN: Democrats need to pick up four seats in the Senate to win control, and the map isn’t favorable. One of the best shots is in your home state of North Carolina. What do you think about the chances in the upper chamber? Do you have a surprise race to watch?
TJ: We think Democrats have a real shot at winning the Senate. Roy Cooper is up by six points or so, so North Carolina will be the first state to flip blue. Susan Collins is so unpopular that it looks like Democrats will win the general in Maine, whether the nominee ends up being Janet Mills or Graham Platner. Alaska is never going to be easy, but we have Mary Peltola up by a couple of points right now. That leaves a number of possibilities for getting another seat to take control. Given Sherrod Brown’s track record of winning, Ohio is probably the most straightforward path to a majority, but we have the Iowa and Texas races with just small Republican advantages, Kansas and South Carolina in single digits, and although we haven’t polled them yet, there are strong candidates in places like Florida and Nebraska who could give Republican incumbents a good fight as well. There isn’t just a single narrow path to 51 seats.
DN: With so many races, the House situation is always more fluid at this point in the cycle. Is this the better bet of the two chambers?
TJ: Democratic control of the House is a near certainty, and it may end up being a very robust majority. We’re finding Democratic candidates competitive even in some seats the Cook Political Report has rated as “Likely” or “Safe” Republican. That means it’s likely Democrats will come close to running the table in districts currently seen as toss-ups or even “Lean” Republican, and then win some of those reach districts as well—it almost always happens in a midterm wave year. We are now, on a weekly basis, testing various districts Trump won by double digits in 2024 to see if there’s a path to victory for Democrats there, and there usually is, even if our candidate starts out behind. Voters who aren’t sure how they’re going to vote this year generally disapprove of the job Trump is doing, so if their vote ends up being a referendum on his leadership at the end of the day, it will flip a lot of places Republicans are ahead by a couple of points into places Democrats win by a couple of points.
DN: Finally, give us a plug for your firm!
TJ: PPP provides a great combination of accuracy, affordability, and speed to our clients. We do so much polling across the country that we have a great idea of the overall lay of the land that benefits all our clients, and we tend to see things coming when others don’t—like being the only polling company to have Zohran Mamdani in first place for the New York City Democratic primary last year. We’re always happy for the opportunity to help new clients. We want to do our part in as many Democratic wins as possible this year, so if we can ever help you with anything, please drop us a note!
Tom Jensen