Skip to content

Ohio’s 2026 Landscape: Beyond The Statewide’s

Hi friends,

When I returned to my home state of Ohio after a few years, I found a much redder state than the one I left. And if you’ve been following the national take on Ohio, you’ve probably heard that it’s a dark red state now. To be sure, Trump won it by 11(!) points in 2024. That’s pretty decisive. But the polling coming out over the last few months tells a story that is more complicated, and better for Democrats than we might have thought.

The Statewide Races: Close Across the Board

Four major polls released over the summer point to the fact that neither the Senate nor the governor’s race is a foregone conclusion. In the Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024, is leading or tied with current Republican Senator Jon Husted. Similarly, Democrat Amy Action is leading or within the margin of error against Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy. A series of polls conducted by Fox News in late May/early June, the AARP in mid-June, the New York Times/Siena College in late June, and the Wedgwood Polls in mid-August show how competitive the statewide elections in Ohio could be this cycle.

Senate

  • Fox News (late May-early June): Brown 53%, Husted 45%

  • AARP (mid-June): Brown 48%, Husted 45%

  • NYT/Siena (late June): Husted 50%, Brown 47%

  • Wedgwood Polls (mid-August): Brown 48%, Husted 44%

Governor

  • Fox News (late May-early June): Acton 50%, Ramaswamy 49%

  • AARP (mid-June): Acton 47%, Ramaswamy 44%

  • NYT/Siena (late June): Acton 47%, Ramaswamy 47%

  • Wedgwood Polls (mid-August): Acton 44%, Ramaswamy 47%

It’s surprising  that no one has pulled ahead. In a state Trump won by 11, both Democratic candidates are running within the margin of error. Reading deeper into the crosstabs, we can see that the overall environment is playing heavily in Democrats’ favor. Independents are breaking hard for Democrats as evidenced by the AARP poll finding Brown leading among Independents by 26 points and Acton by 28 points. The Wedgwood poll in August found that nearly 10% of Trump voters remain undecided. And the Democratic candidates’ favorability is performing well across all polls, with Brown’s net favorability at +14, compared to Husted’s -14; Acton’s net is +3, while Ramaswamy’s is -4.

So. Much. Spending.

If the polling suggests Ohio is competitive, the spending confirms it. AdImpact projects total political ad spending in Ohio will reach a staggering $749 million for the 2026 cycle (as of July 9, 2026), a 70% jump from initial projections of $440 million and the fourth-highest in the nation. The surge is driven almost entirely by the competitiveness of the Senate and gubernatorial races.

The Senate race is expected to draw at least $500 million in ad spending, which would break the previous national record of $483 million set in Ohio’s 2024 Senate race. The spending disparity is clear. Sherrod Brown raised $17.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, more than double Jon Husted’s $7.7 million. But outside groups are pouring money into the Buckeye State. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has booked $79 million in Ohio, the largest reservation in any state, while the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has committed $64 million. The conservative group One Nation is adding another $28 million in TV ads, while Americans for Prosperity Action has spent $1.75 million on ads and door-knocking efforts. In total, outside groups have already committed to spending nearly $200 million this cycle.

The governor’s race is following a similar trajectory, with AdImpact projecting approximately $172 million in advertising, making it one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in the country. Early spending has been heavily concentrated on the Republican side. From May 15 through June 30, Vivek Ramaswamy and V-PAC: Victors, Not Victims spent nearly $9 million on advertising, including more than $5 million on traditional television, $1.9 million on streaming, nearly $1 million on cable, and more than $260,000 on digital. Amy Acton and her allies spent approximately $100,000 during that same six-week period.

The financial picture has evolved since then. Through June 30, Ramaswamy’s campaign had reported approximately $30.3 million in contributions and $28.3 million in expenditures, while Acton’s campaign had reported approximately $15.9 million in contributions and $7.8 million in expenditures. The early advertising gap is significantly skewed toward Ramaswamy, with little to show for his massive spend. Meanwhile, Acton remains competitive with a significantly smaller expenditure of resources.

The result is an Ohio political landscape in which enormous sums are already committed to the two marquee statewide races, with additional spending expected as the campaigns enter the fall. The Senate contest alone is on pace to break the record set in Ohio just two years ago, while the gubernatorial race has attracted an extraordinary level of spending for a state that Republicans have carried comfortably in recent presidential elections.

The Real Action: The Ohio House of Representatives

This is where it gets interesting. Democrats need to flip six Ohio House seats to break the Republican supermajority. Currently, there are 65 Republicans and 34 Democrats. In Ohio, 60 seats are needed for a veto-proof supermajority. If Acton wins but can’t get legislation past a veto-proof GOP majority, the governorship is hamstrung. Democrats are focusing on ten GOP-held seats, with five in Northeast Ohio, two in the Dayton area, one near Columbus, and two additional targets:

  • HD-17 (Southwestern Cuyahoga County): Incumbent Mike Dovilla (R) vs. Megan Coy (D)

  • HD-31 (Northern Summit County): Open seat, J. Noah Spinner (D) vs. Mike Kahoe (R)

  • HD-35 (Geauga, Portage, Summit): Open seat, Samantha Salamon (D) vs. Vik Sandhu (R)

  • HD-36 (Eastern Montgomery County): Incumbent Andrea White (R) vs. Rose Lounsbury (D)

  • HD-39 (Northern Montgomery County): Open seat, Daquan Neal (D) vs. Mark Campbell (R)

  • HD-49 (Central Stark County): Incumbent Jim Thomas (R) vs. Krista Allison (D)

  • HD-52 (Northeastern Lorain County): Open seat, Mike Baker (D) vs. Cliff Winkel (R)

  • HD-60 (Western Delaware County): Incumbent Brian Lorenz (R) vs. Shelby Kimball (D)

  • HD-29 (Western Hamilton County): Incumbent Cindy Abrams (R) vs. Jonathan Bradner (D)

  • HD-44 (Lucas, Ottawa, Wood counties): Open seat, David J. Fournier (D) vs. Edward L. Schimmel (R)

Four of the top eight targets are open seats; incumbents are term-limited or running for other offices, which improves Democratic chances.

Districts 31, 35, 36, and 49 were won during a Republican wave by only about 3,000 votes (roughly 5%). If the environment is even slightly better for Democrats, those seats flip. If Brown and Acton are pulling 47-48% at the top of the ticket, that tide lifts the legislative races beneath them. And the targeted districts, concentrated in the suburbs around Cleveland, Akron, Dayton, and Columbus, are exactly the kind of seats that shift when the statewide environment is competitive.

Ohio isn’t turning blue overnight. But it’s not the write-off some national observers assume, either. The polling is close, the money is flowing, and the down-ballot map is more interesting than it’s been in years.

— David Dettman