Latino Vote in Flux

Howdy,

The conventional wisdom coming out of the 2024 election said Democrats lost Latinos for a generation. Trump won 46-48% of Latino voters nationally in 2024, a historic high for a Republican, and in Texas specifically, exit polls suggested Trump captured 55% of the Latino vote—a 13-point increase from 2020.

Of course it was fleeting, the idea that Latinos would or might vote for MAGA the same way they did in 2024. The 2025 elections last month revealed something Democrats need to understand: the Latino electorate isn’t realigning—it’s volatile, persuadable, and up for grabs. Less GOTV and more persuasion universes.

In New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial races, Latino voters supported Democratic candidates by roughly 68% and 67% respectively, margins that look like the pre-2024 pattern than last year’s lurch.

What explains the reversal? According to recent Equis Research polling, two factors stand out: the economy and immigration enforcement.

Equis Research’s October 2025 polling of 2,000 registered Latino voters found Trump’s approval rating underwater at 36-59, a net negative of 23 points. More significantly, 19% of his 2024 supporters expressed disappointment (14%) or outright regret (6%) for having voted for him, and 13% expressed potential defection away from Republicans in 2026.

Trump’s approval among Latino voters dropped from 38% in May to 35% by July, with 63% disapproving. Nearly one in five Latinos say they used to think Trump was a good businessman but don’t anymore—including 15% of Trump voters themselves. Among Biden-to-Trump defectors, that number climbs to 30%.

And there’s more data, like from folks at Unidos and Pew. They show the same kind of movement among Latino voters.  Importantly, they mirror the overall movement we see in the electorate. Trump and Republican polling numbers are falling. Badly.

This is a clear opportunity, especially in my home state of Texas where congressional maps are still in flux as we approach the candidate filing deadline. We should embrace the opportunity and lean into messaging that genuinely addresses the economic concerns of voters.

The unknown – how much worse will the political environment get for Republicans? – is hard to predict. All signs point to a head-in-the-sand mentality (hello 2010) from Republicans, a denial that will no doubt help non-traditional candidates.

Both parties continue to have significant room for growth with Latino voters—especially when it comes to addressing the cost of living and fighting for hardworking Americans. The party that delivers on these promises will earn Latino voters’ trust.

The Latino vote isn’t guaranteed for anyone. It will go to the party that speaks to economic anxiety, respects the dignity of immigrant communities, and shows up year-round with authentic engagement. The 2025 elections proved that Latino voters are persuadable and responsive to Democratic messages when we deliver them effectively. The question for 2026 and beyond is whether we’ll do the work to earn these votes—or whether we’ll make the same mistakes that cost us so dearly in 2024.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on 2026 and the opportunities that exist. Send me a note at Michael@cn4partners.com and let’s set-up some time to talk.